Excerpts

#3: Control the Glass

Along with valuing possessions, there is another way to maximize scoring chances, especially important in a pressure-packed, one-and-done environment. 

Dominate the backboards.

Players come out tight in games with no certain future, which is a natural byproduct of the human condition. Shooting percentages are generally down due to nerves, better opposition defense (and better opponents in general) during the NCAA Tournament, and many games played in massive dome arenas, which can mess with a shooter’s depth perception from certain areas of the floor.

One way to offset poor shooting is to create more opportunities to score. If at first you don’t score, shoot and shoot again.
Teams with better rebounding margins than their opponents went 33-15 over the first two rounds of the 2009 NCAA Tournament, including a 12-4 mark in the second round.

The 2009 statistics throughout the early pages of this guide are instruments used to convey over-arching trends and also signs of an ever-changing game.

When it comes to statistics, the most current numbers are the best to use when evaluating trends. College basketball is not the same today as it was 2 years ago. The game is quicker, the players stronger and taller. Always use the most current statistical trends when evaluating basketball fundamentals (offense, defense, turnovers, and rebounding).

#19: The Seeds Don’t Lie

You see that little number to the left or right of the team name. It is there for a reason. The NCAA Tournament Committee assigns each tournament team a seed based on its overall resume throughout the season. And for the most part, the seeds don’t lie. When searching for upsets and deciding on which team to build your bracket around, use this statistical list of first-round success from 1992 to 2007.

Seed	Record	Winning Percentage
1	64-0	100%
2	61-3	95%
3	56-8	88%
4	52-12	81%
5	42-22	66%
6	47-17	73%
7	37-27	58%
8	28-36	44%

Notes to Self:

• While it will happen someday, don’t plan for a No. 1 seed to exit in the first round anytime soon. Top seeds are 100-0 since the tournament expanded in 1985.
• The second seed in each region is another near certainty to advance past the first round.
• Upsets do happen involving the third and fourth seeds. The key is picking the correct 13 and 14-seeded teams to spring the surprise. How do you pick Cinderella? Chapter One is a good start and more keys will follow.
• The famous 12th seed has been more successful than the 11th seed. This is not a surprise as many No. 12 seeds are upstart mid-major programs, while many No. 11 seeds are overvalued big schools that barely sneaked into the tournament. In many cases, especially recently, the No. 12 seeds have actually been the better teams.
• Games pitting #7 vs. #10 and #8 vs. #9 are truly a flip of the coin…to the untrained bracketologist. Statistical keys from Chapter One can go a long way towards grabbing a few key points in the bracket pool.

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